Copper takes top spot again as best prospect at LME seminar
Copper was the sweeping choice for the industrial metal with the best outlook for higher prices, attendees at a London Metal Exchange (LME) event said on Monday.
Copper got 46% of votes in an informal poll at the LME Seminar on which base metal is likely to have most upside, slightly less than last year at 53%.
The poll took place after a succession of analysts presented their cases for each of the six base metals traded on the LME plus steel.
Tin same in second place at 36%, also replicating last year’s position, gaining on last year’s level of 23%.
LME tin has been by far the best performing LME metal so far this year, surging by 31% compared to zinc and copper in second and third place at 17% and 16% respectively.
The tin market is expected to have a 10,000 metric ton deficit this year while the price of the metal largely used in solder for electronic goods is closely correlated to that of copper, said Tom Langston of the International Tin Association.
In the informal poll on Monday, votes for other metals ranged between 2%-7%, with aluminum getting 4%.
Jorge Vazquez of consultancy Harbor Aluminium said a large surge of supply, especially of recycled metal, was engulfing the aluminum market and would pressure prices, although he did not give specific forecasts.
“Secondary aluminum expansions are happening on a massive scale,” he said. “We don’t see any scarcity coming in the next three years.”
Analyst Amy Gower of Morgan Stanley said Chinese copper demand was not as bearish as headlines would suggest while not enough capital spending was going towards building new mines.
Copper prices would be anchored at around $9,500 a metric ton in coming months, with a bullish scenario seeing prices rising to surpass a record above $11,100 touched in May, she added.
Three month LME copper was trading at $9,895 a ton on Monday afternoon.