- Write by:
-
Friday, March 1, 2024 - 22:52:20
-
96 Visit
-
Print
The global nickel market could swing to a surprise deficit this year if growth in Indonesian output is constrained by slow mining permit approvals, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.
While the bank’s base case is for a surplus of less than 40,000 tons, that may be in jeopardy if Jakarta’s approvals are slow and full-year growth in local production dips below 13%, analysts including Jim Lennon said in a note. “This is a major change from our recent forecasts,” they wrote.
Benchmark nickel prices collapsed by 45% last year, driven by massive growth in supply from the Southeast Asian nation, which outstripped faltering demand from the stainless steel and battery industries. Still, permit approvals in Indonesia this year — without which producers may not operate — have been tardy, prompting the government to pledge that they’ll be cleared this month.
Outside Indonesia, stockpiles built up within China last year may also have been smaller than previously estimated given a bigger-than-projected increase in its consumption, the analysts said, citing field research. As a result, the market appears to be closer to balance than previously assessed, they said.
Nickel ore in Indonesia has been trading at a more-than-$7 a ton premium to the government-set minimum selling price, Macquarie said. That would add about $700 a ton to production costs in the country, the bank estimates.
That would present significant relief to miners and smelters elsewhere, with many weighing shutdowns as Indonesia’s massive low-cost production makes them uncompetitive. Septian Hario Seto, the government official who has overseen the country’s nickel-processing boom, said prices are unlikely to rise much above $18,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange.
Three-month nickel futures fell 1.7% to $17,585 a ton as of 3:45 p.m. on the LME in London, after climbing 10% last month amid the Indonesian permitting delays. Other metals rose, with copper and aluminum up 0.2%.
Short Link:
https://www.miningnews.ir/En/News/628088
Eramet subsidiary SLN’s nickel mining operations in northern New Caledonia have been suspended, adding to difficulties ...
Toronto-listed miner OceanaGold Corp said on Wednesday it will raise 6.08 billion pesos ($106 million) through an ...
Brazilian miner Vale on Wednesday said lower prices for iron ore, nickel and copper in the first quarter dragged down ...
BHP Group Ltd. proposed a takeover of Anglo American Plc that values the smaller miner at £31.1 billion ($38.8 billion), ...
The London Metal Exchange is imposing new rules surrounding the movement of metal in its warehousing network, taking aim ...
Interros, Nornickel’s largest shareholder, on Monday called allegations by fellow shareholder Rusal about undervalued ...
A Russian arbitration court ruled on Monday that four units of Swiss commodities trader Glencore will pay more than 11.4 ...
The London Metal Exchange (LME) on Saturday banned from its system Russian metal produced on or after April 13 to comply ...
French mining group Eramet said on Wednesday it had reached an agreement with the French government to continue its ...
No comments have been posted yet ...